Guangdong Fenghua Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| 000636 Stock | 15.35 0.22 1.45% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Guangdong Fenghua Advanced on the next trading day is expected to be 15.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.98. Guangdong Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Guangdong Fenghua stock prices and determine the direction of Guangdong Fenghua Advanced's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Guangdong Fenghua's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Guangdong |
Guangdong Fenghua Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Guangdong Fenghua Advanced on the next trading day is expected to be 15.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.98.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Guangdong Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Guangdong Fenghua's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Guangdong Fenghua Stock Forecast Pattern
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Guangdong Fenghua Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Guangdong Fenghua's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Guangdong Fenghua's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.50 and 18.20, respectively. We have considered Guangdong Fenghua's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Guangdong Fenghua stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Guangdong Fenghua stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.6124 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0353 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3163 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0207 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 18.98 |
Predictive Modules for Guangdong Fenghua
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Guangdong Fenghua. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Guangdong Fenghua
For every potential investor in Guangdong, whether a beginner or expert, Guangdong Fenghua's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Guangdong Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Guangdong. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Guangdong Fenghua's price trends.Guangdong Fenghua Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Guangdong Fenghua stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Guangdong Fenghua could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Guangdong Fenghua by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Guangdong Fenghua Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Guangdong Fenghua's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Guangdong Fenghua's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Guangdong Fenghua Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Guangdong Fenghua stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Guangdong Fenghua shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Guangdong Fenghua stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Guangdong Fenghua Advanced entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 573714.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.3929 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 15.22 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 15.26 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.24 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.22 |
Guangdong Fenghua Risk Indicators
The analysis of Guangdong Fenghua's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Guangdong Fenghua's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting guangdong stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.01 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.14 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.75 | |||
| Variance | 7.58 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.91 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.6 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.35) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Guangdong Stock
Guangdong Fenghua financial ratios help investors to determine whether Guangdong Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Guangdong with respect to the benefits of owning Guangdong Fenghua security.