China Construction Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| 00939 Stock | 14.25 0.05 0.35% |
China |
China Construction Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of China Construction Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 14.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.91.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict China Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that China Construction's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
China Construction Stock Forecast Pattern
China Construction Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting China Construction's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. China Construction's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.62 and 14.88, respectively. We have considered China Construction's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of China Construction stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent China Construction stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.2582 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -5.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0652 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0045 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.91 |
Predictive Modules for China Construction
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Construction Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as China Construction. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against China Construction's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, China Construction's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in China Construction Bank.Other Forecasting Options for China Construction
For every potential investor in China, whether a beginner or expert, China Construction's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. China Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in China. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying China Construction's price trends.China Construction Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with China Construction stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of China Construction could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing China Construction by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
China Construction Bank Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of China Construction's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of China Construction's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
China Construction Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how China Construction stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading China Construction shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying China Construction stock market strength indicators, traders can identify China Construction Bank entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
China Construction Risk Indicators
The analysis of China Construction's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in China Construction's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting china stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4648 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.6198 | |||
| Variance | 0.3841 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for China Stock Analysis
When running China Construction's price analysis, check to measure China Construction's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy China Construction is operating at the current time. Most of China Construction's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of China Construction's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move China Construction's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of China Construction to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.