Digital Power Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

026890 Stock   8,280  210.00  2.60%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Digital Power Communications on the next trading day is expected to be 8,297 with a mean absolute deviation of 135.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8,145. Digital Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Digital Power stock prices and determine the direction of Digital Power Communications's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Digital Power's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Digital Power - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Digital Power prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Digital Power price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Digital Power Commun.

Digital Power Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Digital Power Communications on the next trading day is expected to be 8,297 with a mean absolute deviation of 135.75, mean absolute percentage error of 38,251, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8,145.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Digital Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Digital Power's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Digital Power Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Digital PowerDigital Power Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Digital Power Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Digital Power's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Digital Power's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8,295 and 8,300, respectively. We have considered Digital Power's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
8,280
8,297
Expected Value
8,300
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Digital Power stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Digital Power stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 23.6876
MADMean absolute deviation135.7532
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0169
SAESum of the absolute errors8145.1895
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Digital Power observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Digital Power Communications observations.

Predictive Modules for Digital Power

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Digital Power Commun. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
8,2788,2808,282
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
6,8426,8449,108
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
7,3227,8328,342
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Digital Power. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Digital Power's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Digital Power's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Digital Power Commun.

Other Forecasting Options for Digital Power

For every potential investor in Digital, whether a beginner or expert, Digital Power's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Digital Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Digital. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Digital Power's price trends.

Digital Power Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Digital Power stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Digital Power could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Digital Power by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Digital Power Commun Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Digital Power's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Digital Power's current price.

Digital Power Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Digital Power stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Digital Power shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Digital Power stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Digital Power Communications entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Digital Power Risk Indicators

The analysis of Digital Power's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Digital Power's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting digital stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Digital Power

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Digital Power position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Digital Power will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Digital Stock

  0.64293780 AptaBio TherapeuticsPairCorr
  0.72215480 Daewoo SBI SPACPairCorr
  0.64302430 InnometryPairCorr

Moving against Digital Stock

  0.37203650 Dream Security coPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Digital Power could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Digital Power when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Digital Power - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Digital Power Communications to buy it.
The correlation of Digital Power is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Digital Power moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Digital Power Commun moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Digital Power can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Digital Stock

Digital Power financial ratios help investors to determine whether Digital Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Digital with respect to the benefits of owning Digital Power security.