Alibaba Group Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| 0HCI Stock | 99.50 0.84 0.84% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alibaba Group Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 99.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.82 and the sum of the absolute errors of 107.27. Alibaba Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Alibaba |
Alibaba Group Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alibaba Group Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 99.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.82, mean absolute percentage error of 11.53, and the sum of the absolute errors of 107.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alibaba Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alibaba Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alibaba Group Stock Forecast Pattern
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Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alibaba Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alibaba Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.5689 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.8182 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.023 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 107.2727 |
Predictive Modules for Alibaba Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alibaba Group Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alibaba Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alibaba Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alibaba Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alibaba Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alibaba Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alibaba Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alibaba Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alibaba Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alibaba Group Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 3337.97 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.34) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 100.5 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 100.17 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.42) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.84) |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Alibaba Stock Analysis
When running Alibaba Group's price analysis, check to measure Alibaba Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alibaba Group is operating at the current time. Most of Alibaba Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alibaba Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alibaba Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alibaba Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.