Marathon Oil Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| 0JY9 Stock | 28.76 0.32 1.10% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Marathon Oil Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 28.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.56. Marathon Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Marathon |
Marathon Oil Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Marathon Oil Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 28.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48, mean absolute percentage error of 0.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.56.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Marathon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Marathon Oil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Marathon Oil Stock Forecast Pattern
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Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Marathon Oil stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Marathon Oil stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.1738 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4845 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0178 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 29.5569 |
Predictive Modules for Marathon Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marathon Oil Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Marathon Oil Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Marathon Oil stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Marathon Oil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Marathon Oil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Marathon Oil Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Marathon Oil stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Marathon Oil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Marathon Oil stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Marathon Oil Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Marathon Oil Risk Indicators
The analysis of Marathon Oil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Marathon Oil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting marathon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.33 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.99 | |||
| Variance | 3.97 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.19 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.18 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.50) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Marathon Stock Analysis
When running Marathon Oil's price analysis, check to measure Marathon Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Marathon Oil is operating at the current time. Most of Marathon Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Marathon Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Marathon Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Marathon Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.