Manulife All Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

0P0000U5JR   58.36  0.00  0.00%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Manulife All Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 58.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.93. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Manulife All's fund prices and determine the direction of Manulife All Cap's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading.
  
A naive forecasting model for Manulife All is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Manulife All Cap value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Manulife All Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Manulife All Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 58.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47, mean absolute percentage error of 0.36, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.93.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Manulife Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Manulife All's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Manulife All Fund Forecast Pattern

Manulife All Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Manulife All's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Manulife All's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 57.77 and 59.45, respectively. We have considered Manulife All's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
58.36
58.61
Expected Value
59.45
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Manulife All fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Manulife All fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.0903
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4743
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0087
SAESum of the absolute errors28.9303
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Manulife All Cap. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Manulife All. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Manulife All

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Manulife All Cap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for Manulife All

For every potential investor in Manulife, whether a beginner or expert, Manulife All's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Manulife Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Manulife. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Manulife All's price trends.

Manulife All Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Manulife All fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Manulife All could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Manulife All by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Manulife All Cap Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Manulife All's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Manulife All's current price.

Manulife All Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Manulife All fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Manulife All shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Manulife All fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Manulife All Cap entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Manulife All Risk Indicators

The analysis of Manulife All's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Manulife All's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting manulife fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Manulife All

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Manulife All position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Manulife All will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Manulife Fund

  0.930P0000706A RBC Select BalancedPairCorr
  0.930P00007069 RBC PortefeuillePairCorr
  0.890P0000IUYO Edgepoint Global PorPairCorr
  0.870P0001FAU8 TD Comfort BalancedPairCorr
  0.990P00012UCU RBC Global EquityPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Manulife All could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Manulife All when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Manulife All - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Manulife All Cap to buy it.
The correlation of Manulife All is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Manulife All moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Manulife All Cap moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Manulife All can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
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