Samsung KODEX Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction

102960 Etf   7,195  30.00  0.42%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Samsung KODEX Machinary on the next trading day is expected to be 7,080 with a mean absolute deviation of 122.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7,447. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Samsung KODEX's etf prices and determine the direction of Samsung KODEX Machinary's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading.
  
A naive forecasting model for Samsung KODEX is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Samsung KODEX Machinary value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Samsung KODEX Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Samsung KODEX Machinary on the next trading day is expected to be 7,080 with a mean absolute deviation of 122.08, mean absolute percentage error of 21,780, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7,447.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Samsung Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Samsung KODEX's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Samsung KODEX Etf Forecast Pattern

Samsung KODEX Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Samsung KODEX's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Samsung KODEX's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7,078 and 7,082, respectively. We have considered Samsung KODEX's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
7,195
7,080
Expected Value
7,082
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Samsung KODEX etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Samsung KODEX etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria128.0992
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation122.0757
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0173
SAESum of the absolute errors7446.6166
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Samsung KODEX Machinary. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Samsung KODEX. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Samsung KODEX

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Samsung KODEX Machinary. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Samsung KODEX. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Samsung KODEX's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Samsung KODEX's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Samsung KODEX Machinary.

Other Forecasting Options for Samsung KODEX

For every potential investor in Samsung, whether a beginner or expert, Samsung KODEX's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Samsung Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Samsung. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Samsung KODEX's price trends.

Samsung KODEX Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Samsung KODEX etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Samsung KODEX could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Samsung KODEX by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Samsung KODEX Machinary Technical and Predictive Analytics

The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Samsung KODEX's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Samsung KODEX's current price.

Samsung KODEX Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Samsung KODEX etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Samsung KODEX shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Samsung KODEX etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Samsung KODEX Machinary entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Samsung KODEX Risk Indicators

The analysis of Samsung KODEX's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Samsung KODEX's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting samsung etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.