Intai Technology Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| 4163 Stock | TWD 113.50 0.50 0.44% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Intai Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 113.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.08. Intai Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Intai |
Intai Technology Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Intai Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 113.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50, mean absolute percentage error of 0.49, and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.08.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Intai Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Intai Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Intai Technology Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Intai Technology | Intai Technology Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Intai Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Intai Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.5622 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0101 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5013 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0044 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 30.0795 |
Predictive Modules for Intai Technology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Intai Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Intai Technology Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Intai Technology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Intai Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Intai Technology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Intai Technology Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Intai Technology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Intai Technology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Intai Technology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Intai Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Pair Trading with Intai Technology
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Intai Technology position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Intai Technology will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Intai Technology could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Intai Technology when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Intai Technology - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Intai Technology to buy it.
The correlation of Intai Technology is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Intai Technology moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Intai Technology moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Intai Technology can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Intai Stock Analysis
When running Intai Technology's price analysis, check to measure Intai Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Intai Technology is operating at the current time. Most of Intai Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Intai Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Intai Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Intai Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.