Shih Wei Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

5608 Stock  TWD 15.90  0.10  0.62%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Shih Wei Navigation on the next trading day is expected to be 15.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.31. Shih Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Shih Wei simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Shih Wei Navigation are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Shih Wei Navigation prices get older.

Shih Wei Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Shih Wei Navigation on the next trading day is expected to be 15.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.31.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Shih Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Shih Wei's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Shih Wei Stock Forecast Pattern

JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Nov 7Nov 15Nov 25Dec 3Dec 11Dec 19Dec 27Jan 7Jan 15Feb 316.016.517.017.518.018.519.0
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Shih Wei Navigation Shih Wei Navigation forecast
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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Shih Wei stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Shih Wei stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.6618
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0314
MADMean absolute deviation0.2052
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0117
SAESum of the absolute errors12.3125
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Shih Wei Navigation forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Shih Wei observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Shih Wei

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Shih Wei Navigation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
14.3815.9017.42
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
13.8315.3516.87
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
15.4616.7217.99
Details

Shih Wei Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Shih Wei stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Shih Wei could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Shih Wei by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Shih Wei Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Shih Wei stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Shih Wei shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Shih Wei stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Shih Wei Navigation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Shih Wei Risk Indicators

The analysis of Shih Wei's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Shih Wei's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting shih stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Shih Stock Analysis

When running Shih Wei's price analysis, check to measure Shih Wei's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Shih Wei is operating at the current time. Most of Shih Wei's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Shih Wei's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Shih Wei's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Shih Wei to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.