China Sports Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

600158 Stock   7.94  0.19  2.34%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of China Sports Industry on the next trading day is expected to be 7.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.79. China Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast China Sports stock prices and determine the direction of China Sports Industry's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of China Sports' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, China Sports' Retained Earnings are projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Cash is expected to grow to about 2.5 B, whereas Total Assets are forecasted to decline to about 3.9 B.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for China Sports works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

China Sports Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of China Sports Industry on the next trading day is expected to be 7.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.79.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict China Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that China Sports' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

China Sports Stock Forecast Pattern

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China Sports Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting China Sports' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. China Sports' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.43 and 10.41, respectively. We have considered China Sports' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
7.94
7.92
Expected Value
10.41
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of China Sports stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent China Sports stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0198
MADMean absolute deviation0.1466
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0192
SAESum of the absolute errors8.7946
When China Sports Industry prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any China Sports Industry trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent China Sports observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for China Sports

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Sports Industry. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5.487.9710.46
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.036.529.01
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.000.000.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as China Sports. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against China Sports' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, China Sports' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in China Sports Industry.

Other Forecasting Options for China Sports

For every potential investor in China, whether a beginner or expert, China Sports' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. China Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in China. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying China Sports' price trends.

China Sports Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with China Sports stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of China Sports could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing China Sports by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

China Sports Industry Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of China Sports' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of China Sports' current price.

China Sports Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how China Sports stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading China Sports shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying China Sports stock market strength indicators, traders can identify China Sports Industry entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

China Sports Risk Indicators

The analysis of China Sports' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in China Sports' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting china stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Other Information on Investing in China Stock

China Sports financial ratios help investors to determine whether China Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in China with respect to the benefits of owning China Sports security.