Taiwan Union Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average
| 6274 Stock | TWD 168.00 1.50 0.90% |
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Taiwan Union Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 170.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 281.30. Taiwan Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Taiwan |
Taiwan Union 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Taiwan Union Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 170.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.86, mean absolute percentage error of 66.49, and the sum of the absolute errors of 281.30.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Taiwan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Taiwan Union's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Taiwan Union Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Taiwan Union | Taiwan Union Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Taiwan Union stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Taiwan Union stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 85.55 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -2.0939 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 6.861 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0394 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 281.3 |
Predictive Modules for Taiwan Union
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Taiwan Union Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Taiwan Union Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Taiwan Union stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Taiwan Union could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Taiwan Union by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Taiwan Union Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Taiwan Union stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Taiwan Union shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Taiwan Union stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Taiwan Union Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Taiwan Union Risk Indicators
The analysis of Taiwan Union's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Taiwan Union's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting taiwan stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.58 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.76 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.08 | |||
| Variance | 4.33 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.95 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.08 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.77) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Taiwan Union
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Taiwan Union position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Taiwan Union will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Taiwan Stock
Moving against Taiwan Stock
| 0.61 | 3037 | Unimicron Technology Corp | PairCorr |
| 0.6 | 5508 | Yungshin Construction | PairCorr |
| 0.54 | 8072 | AV Tech Corp | PairCorr |
| 0.48 | 8046 | Nan Ya Printed | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Taiwan Union could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Taiwan Union when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Taiwan Union - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Taiwan Union Technology to buy it.
The correlation of Taiwan Union is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Taiwan Union moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Taiwan Union Technology moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Taiwan Union can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Taiwan Stock Analysis
When running Taiwan Union's price analysis, check to measure Taiwan Union's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Taiwan Union is operating at the current time. Most of Taiwan Union's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Taiwan Union's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Taiwan Union's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Taiwan Union to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.