Analog Integrations Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

6291 Stock  TWD 92.00  1.00  1.10%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Analog Integrations on the next trading day is expected to be 92.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 135.00. Analog Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A two period moving average forecast for Analog Integrations is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Analog Integrations Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Analog Integrations on the next trading day is expected to be 92.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.29, mean absolute percentage error of 10.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 135.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Analog Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Analog Integrations' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Analog Integrations Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Analog IntegrationsAnalog Integrations Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Analog Integrations Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Analog Integrations' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Analog Integrations' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 89.09 and 94.91, respectively. We have considered Analog Integrations' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
92.00
92.00
Expected Value
94.91
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Analog Integrations stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Analog Integrations stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.7494
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.7542
MADMean absolute deviation2.2881
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0217
SAESum of the absolute errors135.0
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Analog Integrations price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Analog Integrations. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Analog Integrations

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Analog Integrations. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
89.0992.0094.91
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
82.7485.65101.20
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
88.5591.3294.09
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Analog Integrations

For every potential investor in Analog, whether a beginner or expert, Analog Integrations' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Analog Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Analog. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Analog Integrations' price trends.

Analog Integrations Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Analog Integrations stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Analog Integrations could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Analog Integrations by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Analog Integrations Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Analog Integrations' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Analog Integrations' current price.

Analog Integrations Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Analog Integrations stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Analog Integrations shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Analog Integrations stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Analog Integrations entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Analog Integrations Risk Indicators

The analysis of Analog Integrations' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Analog Integrations' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting analog stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Analog Integrations

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Analog Integrations position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Analog Integrations will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Analog Stock

  0.922303 United MicroelectronicsPairCorr
  0.893034 Novatek MicroelectronicsPairCorr

Moving against Analog Stock

  0.622317 Hon Hai PrecisionPairCorr
  0.593443 Global Unichip CorpPairCorr
  0.552330 Taiwan SemiconductorPairCorr
  0.550050 YuantaP shares TaiwanPairCorr
  0.520057 Fubon MSCI TaiwanPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Analog Integrations could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Analog Integrations when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Analog Integrations - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Analog Integrations to buy it.
The correlation of Analog Integrations is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Analog Integrations moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Analog Integrations moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Analog Integrations can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Analog Stock Analysis

When running Analog Integrations' price analysis, check to measure Analog Integrations' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Analog Integrations is operating at the current time. Most of Analog Integrations' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Analog Integrations' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Analog Integrations' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Analog Integrations to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.