Adverum Biotechnologies Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ADVM Stock | USD 4.36 0.00 0.00% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Adverum Biotechnologies on the next trading day is expected to be 4.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.29. Adverum Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Adverum Biotechnologies' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Adverum Biotechnologies' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Adverum Biotechnologies fundamentals over time.
As of now the rsi of Adverum Biotechnologies' share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.52) | EPS Estimate Current Year (8.23) | EPS Estimate Next Year (4.16) | Wall Street Target Price 4.875 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (1.68) |
Using Adverum Biotechnologies hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Adverum Biotechnologies from the perspective of Adverum Biotechnologies response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Adverum Biotechnologies using Adverum Biotechnologies' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Adverum using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Adverum Biotechnologies' stock price.
Adverum Biotechnologies Short Interest
An investor who is long Adverum Biotechnologies may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Adverum Biotechnologies and may potentially protect profits, hedge Adverum Biotechnologies with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 3.4322 | Short Percent 0.0416 | Short Ratio 0.93 | Shares Short Prior Month 982.7 K | 50 Day MA 4.4016 |
Adverum Biotechnologies Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Adverum Biotechnologies' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Adverum. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Adverum can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Adverum Biotechnologies. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Adverum Biotechnologies' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Adverum Biotechnologies.
Adverum Biotechnologies Implied Volatility | 1.56 |
Adverum Biotechnologies' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Adverum Biotechnologies stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Adverum Biotechnologies' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Adverum Biotechnologies stock will not fluctuate a lot when Adverum Biotechnologies' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Adverum Biotechnologies on the next trading day is expected to be 4.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.29. Adverum Biotechnologies after-hype prediction price | USD 4.35 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in private. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Adverum Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Adverum Biotechnologies' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Adverum Biotechnologies' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Adverum Biotechnologies stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Adverum Biotechnologies' open interest, investors have to compare it to Adverum Biotechnologies' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Adverum Biotechnologies is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Adverum. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Adverum Biotechnologies Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Adverum price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Adverum using various technical indicators. When you analyze Adverum charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Adverum Biotechnologies Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Adverum Biotechnologies' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2012-12-31 | Previous Quarter 42.4 M | Current Value 26.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 72.8 M |
Adverum Biotechnologies Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 20th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Adverum Biotechnologies on the next trading day is expected to be 4.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.29.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Adverum Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Adverum Biotechnologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Adverum Biotechnologies Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Adverum Biotechnologies | Adverum Biotechnologies Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Adverum Biotechnologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Adverum Biotechnologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.9028 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1359 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0323 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.2887 |
Predictive Modules for Adverum Biotechnologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Adverum Biotechnologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Adverum Biotechnologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Adverum Biotechnologies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Adverum Biotechnologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Adverum Biotechnologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Adverum Biotechnologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Adverum Biotechnologies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Adverum Biotechnologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Adverum Biotechnologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Adverum Biotechnologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Adverum Biotechnologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Adverum Biotechnologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of Adverum Biotechnologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Adverum Biotechnologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting adverum stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.39 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.7 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.66 | |||
| Variance | 32.0 | |||
| Downside Variance | 17.15 | |||
| Semi Variance | 13.68 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.59) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Adverum Biotechnologies. If investors know Adverum will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Adverum Biotechnologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Adverum Biotechnologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Adverum that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Adverum Biotechnologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Adverum Biotechnologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Adverum Biotechnologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Adverum Biotechnologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Adverum Biotechnologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Adverum Biotechnologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Adverum Biotechnologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.