AGNC Investment Stock Forward View
| AGNC Stock | USD 11.31 0.01 0.09% |
AGNC Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast AGNC Investment stock prices and determine the direction of AGNC Investment Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of AGNC Investment's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the RSI of AGNC Investment's share price is approaching 48. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling AGNC Investment, making its price go up or down. Momentum 48
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 7.759 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.3898 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.5107 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.5001 | Wall Street Target Price 11.7778 |
Using AGNC Investment hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AGNC Investment Corp from the perspective of AGNC Investment response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards AGNC Investment using AGNC Investment's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards AGNC using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of AGNC Investment's stock price.
AGNC Investment Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in AGNC Investment's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards AGNC. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of AGNC Investment stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 10.0184 | Short Percent 0.058 | Short Ratio 2.9 | Shares Short Prior Month 64.7 M | 50 Day MA 11.1252 |
AGNC Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of AGNC Investment Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 11.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.52.AGNC Investment Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to AGNC Investment's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in AGNC. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding AGNC can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around AGNC Investment Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of AGNC Investment's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about AGNC Investment.
AGNC Investment Implied Volatility | 0.61 |
AGNC Investment's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of AGNC Investment Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if AGNC Investment's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that AGNC Investment stock will not fluctuate a lot when AGNC Investment's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of AGNC Investment Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 11.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.52.
AGNC Investment after-hype prediction price | USD 11.36 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AGNC Investment to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current AGNC contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that AGNC Investment Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0381% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With AGNC Investment trading at USD 11.31, that is roughly USD 0.004312 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating AGNC Investment's daily price movement you should consider acquiring AGNC Investment Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.61%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 AGNC Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast AGNC Investment's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in AGNC Investment's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for AGNC Investment stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current AGNC Investment's open interest, investors have to compare it to AGNC Investment's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of AGNC Investment is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in AGNC. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
AGNC Investment Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AGNC price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AGNC using various technical indicators. When you analyze AGNC charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AGNC Investment Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the AGNC Investment's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2008-06-30 | Previous Quarter 450 M | Current Value 450 M | Quarterly Volatility 740.8 M |
AGNC Investment Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 21st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of AGNC Investment Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 11.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.52.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AGNC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AGNC Investment's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AGNC Investment Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AGNC Investment | AGNC Investment Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
AGNC Investment Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AGNC Investment's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AGNC Investment's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.30 and 12.77, respectively. We have considered AGNC Investment's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AGNC Investment stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AGNC Investment stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.9223 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0904 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0082 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.5171 |
Predictive Modules for AGNC Investment
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AGNC Investment Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AGNC Investment After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AGNC Investment at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AGNC Investment or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AGNC Investment, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AGNC Investment Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AGNC Investment's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AGNC Investment's historical news coverage. AGNC Investment's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.12 and 12.60, respectively. We have considered AGNC Investment's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AGNC Investment is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AGNC Investment Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
AGNC Investment Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AGNC Investment is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AGNC Investment backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AGNC Investment, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 1.24 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 10 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
11.31 | 11.36 | 0.35 |
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AGNC Investment Hype Timeline
AGNC Investment Corp is presently traded for 11.31. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. AGNC is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 11.36 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.35%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.22%. The volatility of related hype on AGNC Investment is about 14880.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.31. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.91 B. Net Income was 863 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.8 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AGNC Investment to cross-verify your projections.AGNC Investment Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AGNC Investment's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AGNC Investment's future price movements. Getting to know how AGNC Investment's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AGNC Investment may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TWO | Two Harbors Investments | 0.38 | 9 per month | 3.06 | 0.08 | 5.62 | (3.82) | 25.79 | |
| CIM | Chimera Investment | (0.11) | 8 per month | 1.28 | 0.10 | 2.51 | (2.10) | 9.12 | |
| ARR | ARMOUR Residential REIT | 0.06 | 9 per month | 1.39 | 0.09 | 2.16 | (1.92) | 8.30 | |
| ABR | Arbor Realty Trust | 0.16 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.59 | (4.81) | 10.47 | |
| ORC | Orchid Island Capital | (0.37) | 9 per month | 1.12 | 0.05 | 2.24 | (1.84) | 6.99 | |
| IVR | Invesco Mortgage Capital | (0.01) | 9 per month | 1.05 | 0.14 | 2.36 | (2.16) | 8.51 | |
| NYMT | New York Mortgage | 0.26 | 7 per month | 1.64 | 0.05 | 2.82 | (2.47) | 8.91 | |
| STWD | Starwood Property Trust | (0.04) | 10 per month | 0.76 | (0.01) | 1.81 | (1.44) | 4.49 | |
| RITM | Rithm Capital Corp | (0.18) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.15 | (1.75) | 11.83 | |
| BXMT | Blackstone Mortgage Trust | (0.24) | 7 per month | 0.99 | 0.04 | 2.28 | (1.62) | 5.73 | |
| ACRE | Ares Commercial Real | 0.02 | 9 per month | 1.76 | 0.04 | 4.16 | (2.92) | 16.95 | |
| NLY | Annaly Capital Management | 0.17 | 9 per month | 1.01 | 0.06 | 2.39 | (1.46) | 6.58 |
Other Forecasting Options for AGNC Investment
For every potential investor in AGNC, whether a beginner or expert, AGNC Investment's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AGNC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AGNC. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AGNC Investment's price trends.AGNC Investment Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AGNC Investment stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AGNC Investment could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AGNC Investment by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AGNC Investment Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AGNC Investment stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AGNC Investment shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AGNC Investment stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AGNC Investment Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 11.31 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 11.31 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 48.32 |
AGNC Investment Risk Indicators
The analysis of AGNC Investment's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AGNC Investment's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting agnc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8808 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8586 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Variance | 1.43 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.48 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7373 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.99) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AGNC Investment
The number of cover stories for AGNC Investment depends on current market conditions and AGNC Investment's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AGNC Investment is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AGNC Investment's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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AGNC Investment Short Properties
AGNC Investment's future price predictability will typically decrease when AGNC Investment's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AGNC Investment Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AGNC Investment's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AGNC Investment's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.7 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AGNC Investment to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Will Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) sector continue expanding? Could AGNC diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AGNC Investment. If investors know AGNC will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every AGNC Investment data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 7.759 | Dividend Share 1.44 | Earnings Share 1.47 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 5.461 |
Understanding AGNC Investment Corp requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects AGNC's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what AGNC Investment's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push AGNC Investment's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that AGNC Investment's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether AGNC Investment represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, AGNC Investment's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.