Alaska Air Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| ALK Stock | EUR 49.63 0.15 0.30% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Alaska Air Group on the next trading day is expected to be 49.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.00 and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.97. Alaska Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Alaska Air's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Alaska |
Alaska Air 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Alaska Air Group on the next trading day is expected to be 49.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.00, mean absolute percentage error of 1.55, and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.97.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alaska Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alaska Air's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alaska Air Stock Forecast Pattern
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Alaska Air Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alaska Air's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alaska Air's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 47.60 and 52.05, respectively. We have considered Alaska Air's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alaska Air stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alaska Air stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.1974 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.6156 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9995 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0235 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 56.97 |
Predictive Modules for Alaska Air
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alaska Air Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Alaska Air
For every potential investor in Alaska, whether a beginner or expert, Alaska Air's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alaska Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alaska. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alaska Air's price trends.Alaska Air Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alaska Air stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alaska Air could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alaska Air by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alaska Air Group Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alaska Air's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alaska Air's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Alaska Air Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alaska Air stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alaska Air shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alaska Air stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alaska Air Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 49.63 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 49.63 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.07) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.15) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 73.43 |
Alaska Air Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alaska Air's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alaska Air's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alaska stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9261 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.23 | |||
| Variance | 4.96 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.4 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8576 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.00) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Alaska Stock
When determining whether Alaska Air Group is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Alaska Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Alaska Air Group Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Alaska Air Group Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alaska Air to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.