Alior Bank Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

Alior Bank Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Alior price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alior using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alior charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur. A naive forecasting model for Alior Bank is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Alior Bank SA value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Alior Bank Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alior Bank SA on the next trading day is expected to be 12.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.

Alior Bank Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Alior Bank Price Prediction

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alior Bank pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alior Bank pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Alior Bank SA. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Alior Bank. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Alior Bank

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alior Bank SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 12.07 12.07 12.07 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 10.26 10.26 13.28 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 12.07 12.07 12.07 Details

Alior Bank After-Hype Price Density Analysis

Alior Bank Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

Alior Bank Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis

Notes

Alior Bank Hype Timeline

Alior Bank SA is presently traded for 12.07. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Alior is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Alior Bank is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.07. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.44. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Alior Bank SA last dividend was issued on the 16th of June 2016. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in main economic indicators.

Alior Bank Related Hype Analysis

Alior Bank Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Alior Bank Market Strength Events

Story Coverage note for Alior Bank

Other Macroaxis Stories

Other Consideration for investing in Alior Pink Sheet