Gold Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

Gold Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Gold price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Gold using various technical indicators. When you analyze Gold charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur. A naive forecasting model for Gold is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Gold Inc value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Gold Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 10th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Gold Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 31.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55, mean absolute percentage error of 0.56, and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.77.

Gold Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Gold

Gold Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gold stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gold stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Gold Inc. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Gold. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Gold

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gold Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 26.25 29.29 32.33 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 20.73 23.77 32.18 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 23.65 26.24 28.83 Details

Gold Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Gold Market Strength Events

Gold Risk Indicators

Other Consideration for investing in Gold Stock