Amazon Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

AMZN Stock  ARS 1,675  15.00  0.89%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Amazon Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 1,680 with a mean absolute deviation of 31.66 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,836. Amazon Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Amazon stock prices and determine the direction of Amazon Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Amazon's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for Amazon Inc is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Amazon 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Amazon Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 1,680 with a mean absolute deviation of 31.66, mean absolute percentage error of 1,613, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,836.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amazon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amazon's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Amazon Stock Forecast Pattern

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Amazon Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Amazon's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Amazon's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,678 and 1,682, respectively. We have considered Amazon's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1,675
1,680
Expected Value
1,682
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amazon stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amazon stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.9829
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -3.3405
MADMean absolute deviation31.6595
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0198
SAESum of the absolute errors1836.25
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Amazon. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Amazon Inc and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Amazon

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amazon Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1,6781,6801,682
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1,5101,5121,848
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
1,5171,6301,742
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Amazon

For every potential investor in Amazon, whether a beginner or expert, Amazon's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Amazon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Amazon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Amazon's price trends.

Amazon Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Amazon stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Amazon could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Amazon by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Amazon Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Amazon's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Amazon's current price.

Amazon Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Amazon stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Amazon shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Amazon stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Amazon Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Amazon Risk Indicators

The analysis of Amazon's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Amazon's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amazon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Amazon Stock

When determining whether Amazon Inc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Amazon's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Amazon Inc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Amazon Inc Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amazon to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amazon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Amazon is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amazon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.