Applied DNA Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

APDNDelisted Stock  USD 5.62  0.92  19.57%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Applied DNA Sciences on the next trading day is expected to be 5.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.34. Applied Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the value of rsi of Applied DNA's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 2

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Applied DNA's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Applied DNA Sciences, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Applied DNA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Applied DNA Sciences from the perspective of Applied DNA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Applied DNA Sciences on the next trading day is expected to be 5.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.34.

Applied DNA after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 5.62  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as delisted stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in small area income & poverty estimates.

Applied DNA Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Applied price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Applied using various technical indicators. When you analyze Applied charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Applied DNA is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Applied DNA Sciences value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Applied DNA Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Applied DNA Sciences on the next trading day is expected to be 5.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.34.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Applied Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Applied DNA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Applied DNA Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Applied DNAApplied DNA Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Applied DNA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Applied DNA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.5757
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1859
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0502
SAESum of the absolute errors11.3399
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Applied DNA Sciences. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Applied DNA. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Applied DNA

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Applied DNA Sciences. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Applied DNA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5.625.625.62
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.084.086.18
Details

Applied DNA Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Applied DNA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Applied DNA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Applied DNA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Applied DNA Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Applied DNA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Applied DNA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Applied DNA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Applied DNA Sciences entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Pair Trading with Applied DNA

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Applied DNA position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Applied DNA will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Applied DNA could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Applied DNA when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Applied DNA - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Applied DNA Sciences to buy it.
The correlation of Applied DNA is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Applied DNA moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Applied DNA Sciences moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Applied DNA can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in small area income & poverty estimates.
You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.

Other Consideration for investing in Applied Stock

If you are still planning to invest in Applied DNA Sciences check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Applied DNA's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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