Arch Resources Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ARCH Stock | USD 173.36 1.01 0.58% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Arch Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 173.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 133.68. Arch Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Arch Resources' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Arch |
Arch Resources Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Arch Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 173.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.23, mean absolute percentage error of 11.69, and the sum of the absolute errors of 133.68.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arch Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arch Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Arch Resources Stock Forecast Pattern
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Arch Resources Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Arch Resources' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Arch Resources' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 170.97 and 175.75, respectively. We have considered Arch Resources' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arch Resources stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arch Resources stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.731 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.8193 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.228 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0153 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 133.68 |
Predictive Modules for Arch Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arch Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arch Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Arch Resources
For every potential investor in Arch, whether a beginner or expert, Arch Resources' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Arch Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Arch. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Arch Resources' price trends.Arch Resources Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Arch Resources stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Arch Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arch Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Arch Resources Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Arch Resources' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Arch Resources' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Arch Resources Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arch Resources stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arch Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arch Resources stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Arch Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0195 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.29) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 175.08 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 174.51 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 3.44 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.22) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.01) |
Arch Resources Risk Indicators
The analysis of Arch Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arch Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arch stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.41 | |||
| Variance | 5.8 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.01 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.02 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.94) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Arch Resources offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Arch Resources' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Arch Resources Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Arch Resources Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arch Resources to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Arch Stock please use our How to Invest in Arch Resources guide.You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Is Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arch Resources. If investors know Arch will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arch Resources listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.80) | Dividend Share 4.14 | Earnings Share 9.59 | Revenue Per Share 145.14 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.17) |
The market value of Arch Resources is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arch that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arch Resources' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arch Resources' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arch Resources' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arch Resources' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arch Resources' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arch Resources is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arch Resources' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.