Ashtead Gro Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

ASHTYDelisted Stock  USD 70.74  0.48  0.68%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ashtead Gro on the next trading day is expected to be -51.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 15.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 938.85. Ashtead Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Ashtead Gro's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Ashtead Gro's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Ashtead Gro, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Ashtead Gro hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ashtead Gro from the perspective of Ashtead Gro response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ashtead Gro on the next trading day is expected to be -51.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 15.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 938.85.

Ashtead Gro after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 70.74  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ashtead Gro to cross-verify your projections.

Ashtead Gro Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Ashtead price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ashtead using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ashtead charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Ashtead Gro is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Ashtead Gro value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Ashtead Gro Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ashtead Gro on the next trading day is expected to be -51.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 15.39, mean absolute percentage error of 801.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 938.85.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ashtead Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ashtead Gro's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ashtead Gro Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest Ashtead GroAshtead Gro Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Ashtead Gro Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ashtead Gro's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ashtead Gro's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.71 and -42.14, respectively. We have considered Ashtead Gro's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
70.74
-51.85
Expected Value
-42.14
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ashtead Gro pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ashtead Gro pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria124.7967
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation15.391
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1208
SAESum of the absolute errors938.8514
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Ashtead Gro. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Ashtead Gro. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Ashtead Gro

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ashtead Gro. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ashtead Gro's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
61.0370.7480.45
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
57.4967.2076.91
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
67.78225.86383.94
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Ashtead Gro

For every potential investor in Ashtead, whether a beginner or expert, Ashtead Gro's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ashtead Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ashtead. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ashtead Gro's price trends.

Ashtead Gro Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ashtead Gro pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ashtead Gro could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ashtead Gro by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ashtead Gro Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ashtead Gro's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ashtead Gro's current price.

Ashtead Gro Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ashtead Gro pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ashtead Gro shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ashtead Gro pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Ashtead Gro entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Ashtead Gro Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ashtead Gro's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ashtead Gro's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ashtead pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ashtead Gro to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.

Other Consideration for investing in Ashtead Pink Sheet

If you are still planning to invest in Ashtead Gro check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Ashtead Gro's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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