Ashtead Gro Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ASHTYDelisted Stock | USD 70.74 0.03 0.04% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ashtead Gro on the next trading day is expected to be -51.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 15.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 938.85. Ashtead Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Ashtead Gro's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 18
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Ashtead Gro hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ashtead Gro from the perspective of Ashtead Gro response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ashtead Gro on the next trading day is expected to be -51.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 15.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 938.85. Ashtead Gro after-hype prediction price | USD 70.74 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Ashtead |
Ashtead Gro Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ashtead price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ashtead using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ashtead charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ashtead Gro Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ashtead Gro on the next trading day is expected to be -51.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 15.39, mean absolute percentage error of 801.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 938.85.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ashtead Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ashtead Gro's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ashtead Gro Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ashtead Gro | Ashtead Gro Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ashtead Gro pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ashtead Gro pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 124.7967 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 15.391 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1208 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 938.8514 |
Predictive Modules for Ashtead Gro
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ashtead Gro. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ashtead Gro's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ashtead Gro After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ashtead Gro at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ashtead Gro or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Ashtead Gro, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ashtead Gro Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ashtead Gro's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ashtead Gro's historical news coverage. Ashtead Gro's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 59.75 and 81.73, respectively. We have considered Ashtead Gro's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ashtead Gro is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ashtead Gro is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ashtead Gro Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ashtead Gro is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ashtead Gro backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ashtead Gro, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.56 | 10.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
70.74 | 70.74 | 0.00 |
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Ashtead Gro Hype Timeline
Ashtead Gro is presently traded for 70.74. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Ashtead is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -1.56%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ashtead Gro is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 70.74. The book value of the company was presently reported as 48.79. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.59. Ashtead Gro recorded earning per share (EPS) of 13.37. The entity last dividend was issued on the 12th of January 2023. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices.Ashtead Gro Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ashtead Gro's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ashtead Gro's future price movements. Getting to know how Ashtead Gro's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ashtead Gro may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SOMLY | Secom Co Ltd | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.07 | 0.02 | 1.93 | (1.49) | 8.20 | |
| LZRFY | Localiza Rent A | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.89 | 0.06 | 6.09 | (7.95) | 32.98 | |
| BCVVF | BOC Aviation Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.97) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 | |
| SHMUY | Shimizu Corp ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| KNCRF | Konecranes Plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.41) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.52 | |
| FINGF | Finning International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.91 | 0.09 | 3.44 | (3.75) | 9.80 | |
| ELSSF | Elis SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.42 | |
| VLMTY | Valmet Oyj | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11.11 | |
| JPNRF | Japan Airlines Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| JDLGF | JD Logistics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 52.99 |
Ashtead Gro Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ashtead Gro pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ashtead Gro could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ashtead Gro by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ashtead Gro Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ashtead Gro pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ashtead Gro shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ashtead Gro pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Ashtead Gro entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ashtead Gro Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ashtead Gro's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ashtead Gro's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ashtead pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 10.99 | |||
| Variance | 120.86 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ashtead Gro
The number of cover stories for Ashtead Gro depends on current market conditions and Ashtead Gro's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ashtead Gro is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ashtead Gro's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ashtead Gro Short Properties
Ashtead Gro's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ashtead Gro's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ashtead Gro often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ashtead Gro's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ashtead Gro's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 111.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 15.3 M |
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Other Consideration for investing in Ashtead Pink Sheet
If you are still planning to invest in Ashtead Gro check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Ashtead Gro's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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