Aquila Tax-free Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AZTCX Fund | USD 9.83 0.02 0.20% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aquila Tax Free Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 9.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.69. Aquila Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
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Aquila Tax-free Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aquila Tax Free Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 9.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0004, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.69.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aquila Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aquila Tax-free's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aquila Tax-free Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Aquila Tax-free Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aquila Tax-free's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aquila Tax-free's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.63 and 10.03, respectively. We have considered Aquila Tax-free's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aquila Tax-free mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aquila Tax-free mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 108.4017 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0012 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0115 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0012 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.69 |
Predictive Modules for Aquila Tax-free
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aquila Tax Free. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aquila Tax-free's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Aquila Tax-free
For every potential investor in Aquila, whether a beginner or expert, Aquila Tax-free's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aquila Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aquila. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aquila Tax-free's price trends.Aquila Tax-free Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aquila Tax-free mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aquila Tax-free could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aquila Tax-free by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aquila Tax Free Technical and Predictive Analytics
The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Aquila Tax-free's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Aquila Tax-free's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aquila Tax-free Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aquila Tax-free mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aquila Tax-free shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aquila Tax-free mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Aquila Tax Free Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 9.83 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 9.83 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.02 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 54.54 |
Aquila Tax-free Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aquila Tax-free's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aquila Tax-free's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aquila mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1175 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.1272 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1935 | |||
| Variance | 0.0374 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.1128 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0162 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.17) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Aquila Mutual Fund
Aquila Tax-free financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aquila Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aquila with respect to the benefits of owning Aquila Tax-free security.
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