Excelsior Alimentos Preferred Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BAUH4 Preferred Stock | BRL 78.79 0.30 0.38% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Excelsior Alimentos SA on the next trading day is expected to be 78.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.42. Excelsior Preferred Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Excelsior |
Excelsior Alimentos Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Excelsior Alimentos SA on the next trading day is expected to be 78.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.42.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Excelsior Preferred Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Excelsior Alimentos' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Excelsior Alimentos Preferred Stock Forecast Pattern
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Excelsior Alimentos Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Excelsior Alimentos' Preferred Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Excelsior Alimentos' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 78.44 and 78.98, respectively. We have considered Excelsior Alimentos' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Excelsior Alimentos preferred stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Excelsior Alimentos preferred stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.003 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1381 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0017 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.4224 |
Predictive Modules for Excelsior Alimentos
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Excelsior Alimentos. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Excelsior Alimentos
For every potential investor in Excelsior, whether a beginner or expert, Excelsior Alimentos' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Excelsior Preferred Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Excelsior. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Excelsior Alimentos' price trends.Excelsior Alimentos Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Excelsior Alimentos preferred stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Excelsior Alimentos could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Excelsior Alimentos by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Excelsior Alimentos Technical and Predictive Analytics
The preferred stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Excelsior Alimentos' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Excelsior Alimentos' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Excelsior Alimentos Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Excelsior Alimentos preferred stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Excelsior Alimentos shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Excelsior Alimentos preferred stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Excelsior Alimentos SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 78.79 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 78.79 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.15 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.3 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 49.63 |
Excelsior Alimentos Risk Indicators
The analysis of Excelsior Alimentos' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Excelsior Alimentos' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting excelsior preferred stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.101 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.2645 | |||
| Variance | 0.07 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Excelsior Preferred Stock Analysis
When running Excelsior Alimentos' price analysis, check to measure Excelsior Alimentos' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Excelsior Alimentos is operating at the current time. Most of Excelsior Alimentos' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Excelsior Alimentos' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Excelsior Alimentos' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Excelsior Alimentos to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.