Bank Negara Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

A four-period moving average forecast model for Bank Negara Indonesia is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Bank Negara 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Bank Negara Indonesia on the next trading day is expected to be 4,998 with a mean absolute deviation of 107.72, mean absolute percentage error of 17,761, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6,248.

Bank Negara Stock Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bank Negara stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bank Negara stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Bank Negara. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Bank Negara Indonesia and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Bank Negara

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bank Negara Indonesia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 5,023 5,025 5,027 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 4,323 4,325 5,528 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 4,621 5,075 5,528 Details

Other Forecasting Options for Bank Negara

For every potential investor in Bank, whether a beginner or expert, Bank Negara's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bank Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bank. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bank Negara's price trends.

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Correlation

Bank Negara Indonesia Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bank Negara's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bank Negara's current price.

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