Brilliance China Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BCAUF Stock | USD 0.38 0.00 0.00% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Brilliance China Automotive on the next trading day is expected to be 0.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.96. Brilliance Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Brilliance China's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
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Brilliance China Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Brilliance China Automotive on the next trading day is expected to be 0.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.96.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Brilliance Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Brilliance China's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Brilliance China Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
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Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Brilliance China pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Brilliance China pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.2167 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1284 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.2798 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.9635 |
Predictive Modules for Brilliance China
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Brilliance China Aut. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Brilliance China's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Brilliance China Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Brilliance China pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Brilliance China could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Brilliance China by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Brilliance China Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Brilliance China pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Brilliance China shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Brilliance China pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Brilliance China Automotive entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Brilliance China Risk Indicators
The analysis of Brilliance China's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Brilliance China's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting brilliance pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 17.96 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 20.67 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 28.83 | |||
| Variance | 831.03 | |||
| Downside Variance | 724.35 | |||
| Semi Variance | 427.37 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (22.78) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Other Information on Investing in Brilliance Pink Sheet
Brilliance China financial ratios help investors to determine whether Brilliance Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Brilliance with respect to the benefits of owning Brilliance China security.