Baillie Gifford Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Baillie Gifford works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Baillie Gifford Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Baillie Gifford Eafe on the next trading day is expected to be 15.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.29.

Baillie Gifford Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Baillie Gifford

Baillie Gifford Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

Baillie Gifford Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Baillie Gifford mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Baillie Gifford mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. When Baillie Gifford Eafe prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Baillie Gifford Eafe trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Baillie Gifford observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Baillie Gifford

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Baillie Gifford Eafe. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 14.26 15.23 16.20 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 13.78 14.75 15.72 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 14.73 15.33 15.92 Details

Other Forecasting Options for Baillie Gifford

For every potential investor in Baillie, whether a beginner or expert, Baillie Gifford's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Baillie Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Baillie. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Baillie Gifford's price trends.

Baillie Gifford Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Baillie Gifford Eafe Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Baillie Gifford's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Baillie Gifford's current price.

Baillie Gifford Market Strength Events

Baillie Gifford Risk Indicators

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

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