BICE11 Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

BICE11 Fund   901.00  99.00  9.90%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of BICE11 on the next trading day is expected to be 975.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 46.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2,884. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast BICE11's fund prices and determine the direction of BICE11's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through BICE11 price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

BICE11 Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of BICE11 on the next trading day is expected to be 975.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 46.52, mean absolute percentage error of 2,602, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2,884.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict BICE11 Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BICE11's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

BICE11 Fund Forecast Pattern

BICE11 Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting BICE11's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. BICE11's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 972.76 and 978.97, respectively. We have considered BICE11's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
901.00
972.76
Downside
975.86
Expected Value
978.97
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BICE11 fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BICE11 fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria127.8124
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation46.5237
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.052
SAESum of the absolute errors2884.4723
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as BICE11 historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for BICE11

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BICE11. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for BICE11

For every potential investor in BICE11, whether a beginner or expert, BICE11's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. BICE11 Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in BICE11. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying BICE11's price trends.

BICE11 Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with BICE11 fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of BICE11 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing BICE11 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

BICE11 Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of BICE11's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of BICE11's current price.

BICE11 Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how BICE11 fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading BICE11 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying BICE11 fund market strength indicators, traders can identify BICE11 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

BICE11 Risk Indicators

The analysis of BICE11's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in BICE11's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bice11 fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
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