Bank Tabungan Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

BTPN Stock  IDR 2,290  20.00  0.88%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Bank Tabungan Pensiunan on the next trading day is expected to be 2,244 with a mean absolute deviation of 32.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,979. Bank Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Bank Tabungan price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Bank Tabungan Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Bank Tabungan Pensiunan on the next trading day is expected to be 2,244 with a mean absolute deviation of 32.45, mean absolute percentage error of 1,540, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,979.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bank Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bank Tabungan's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bank Tabungan Stock Forecast Pattern

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Bank Tabungan Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bank Tabungan's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bank Tabungan's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2,243 and 2,245, respectively. We have considered Bank Tabungan's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2,290
2,244
Expected Value
2,245
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bank Tabungan stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bank Tabungan stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria125.4498
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation32.4453
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0139
SAESum of the absolute errors1979.1623
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Bank Tabungan Pensiunan historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Bank Tabungan

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bank Tabungan Pensiunan. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2,2892,2902,291
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
2,0832,0842,519
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
2,2602,2842,308
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Bank Tabungan

For every potential investor in Bank, whether a beginner or expert, Bank Tabungan's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bank Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bank. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bank Tabungan's price trends.

Bank Tabungan Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bank Tabungan stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bank Tabungan could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bank Tabungan by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bank Tabungan's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bank Tabungan's current price.

Bank Tabungan Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bank Tabungan stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bank Tabungan shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bank Tabungan stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bank Tabungan Pensiunan entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bank Tabungan Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bank Tabungan's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bank Tabungan's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bank stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Bank Stock

Bank Tabungan financial ratios help investors to determine whether Bank Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Bank with respect to the benefits of owning Bank Tabungan security.