Carver Bancorp Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average

CARV Stock  USD 1.84  0.01  0.55%   
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Carver Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 1.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.81. Carver Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Inventory Turnover is likely to drop to 0.02 in 2024. Payables Turnover is likely to drop to -0.84 in 2024. Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to climb to about 5.1 M in 2024, despite the fact that Net Loss is likely to grow to (724.2 K).
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for Carver Bancorp is based on a synthetically constructed Carver Bancorpdaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Carver Bancorp 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Carver Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 1.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.81.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Carver Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Carver Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Carver Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern

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Carver Bancorp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Carver Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Carver Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 6.11, respectively. We have considered Carver Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.84
1.72
Expected Value
6.11
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Carver Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Carver Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria79.0933
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0491
MADMean absolute deviation0.0907
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0544
SAESum of the absolute errors3.809
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Carver Bancorp 20-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Carver Bancorp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Carver Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.091.846.23
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.081.515.90
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Carver Bancorp

For every potential investor in Carver, whether a beginner or expert, Carver Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Carver Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Carver. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Carver Bancorp's price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

Carver Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Carver Bancorp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Carver Bancorp's current price.

Carver Bancorp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Carver Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Carver Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Carver Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Carver Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Carver Bancorp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Carver Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Carver Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting carver stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

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Additional Tools for Carver Stock Analysis

When running Carver Bancorp's price analysis, check to measure Carver Bancorp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Carver Bancorp is operating at the current time. Most of Carver Bancorp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Carver Bancorp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Carver Bancorp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Carver Bancorp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.