Mersen SA Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

CBLNYDelisted Stock  USD 4.61  0.00  0.00%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mersen SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 4.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0. Mersen Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Mersen SA is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Mersen SA ADR value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Mersen SA Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mersen SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 4.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mersen Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mersen SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Mersen SA Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest Mersen SAMersen SA Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mersen SA pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mersen SA pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria54.4882
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0
SAESum of the absolute errors0.0
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Mersen SA ADR. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Mersen SA. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Mersen SA

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mersen SA ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.614.614.61
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.923.925.07
Details

Mersen SA Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mersen SA pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mersen SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mersen SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Mersen SA Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mersen SA pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mersen SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mersen SA pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Mersen SA ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in employment.
You can also try the Latest Portfolios module to quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios.

Other Consideration for investing in Mersen Pink Sheet

If you are still planning to invest in Mersen SA ADR check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Mersen SA's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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