CIMB Thai Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

CIMBT Stock  THB 0.48  0.01  2.04%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CIMB Thai Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 0.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.41. CIMB Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast CIMB Thai stock prices and determine the direction of CIMB Thai Bank's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of CIMB Thai's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for CIMB Thai works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

CIMB Thai Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CIMB Thai Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 0.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.000082, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.41.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CIMB Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CIMB Thai's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

CIMB Thai Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest CIMB ThaiCIMB Thai Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

CIMB Thai Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting CIMB Thai's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CIMB Thai's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 2.05, respectively. We have considered CIMB Thai's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.48
0.48
Expected Value
2.05
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CIMB Thai stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CIMB Thai stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -7.0E-4
MADMean absolute deviation0.0069
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.013
SAESum of the absolute errors0.4053
When CIMB Thai Bank prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any CIMB Thai Bank trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent CIMB Thai observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for CIMB Thai

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CIMB Thai Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CIMB Thai's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.020.482.05
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.020.421.99
Details

Other Forecasting Options for CIMB Thai

For every potential investor in CIMB, whether a beginner or expert, CIMB Thai's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CIMB Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CIMB. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CIMB Thai's price trends.

CIMB Thai Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CIMB Thai stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CIMB Thai could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CIMB Thai by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

CIMB Thai Bank Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CIMB Thai's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CIMB Thai's current price.

CIMB Thai Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CIMB Thai stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CIMB Thai shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CIMB Thai stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CIMB Thai Bank entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

CIMB Thai Risk Indicators

The analysis of CIMB Thai's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CIMB Thai's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cimb stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!

The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.

Try AI Portfolio Architect

Other Information on Investing in CIMB Stock

CIMB Thai financial ratios help investors to determine whether CIMB Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in CIMB with respect to the benefits of owning CIMB Thai security.