Civitas Resources Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CIVI Stock | USD 51.47 0.69 1.36% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Civitas Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 49.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.27. Civitas Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Civitas Resources' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Civitas |
Civitas Resources Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Civitas Resources' financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2011-12-31 | Previous Quarter 91.9 M | Current Value 47.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 6.9 B |
Civitas Resources Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Civitas Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 49.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.04, mean absolute percentage error of 1.73, and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Civitas Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Civitas Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Civitas Resources Stock Forecast Pattern
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Civitas Resources Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Civitas Resources' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Civitas Resources' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 47.94 and 51.91, respectively. We have considered Civitas Resources' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Civitas Resources stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Civitas Resources stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.6604 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0372 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0199 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 63.2676 |
Predictive Modules for Civitas Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Civitas Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Civitas Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Civitas Resources
For every potential investor in Civitas, whether a beginner or expert, Civitas Resources' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Civitas Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Civitas. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Civitas Resources' price trends.Civitas Resources Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Civitas Resources stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Civitas Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Civitas Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Civitas Resources Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Civitas Resources' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Civitas Resources' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
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Civitas Resources Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Civitas Resources stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Civitas Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Civitas Resources stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Civitas Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Civitas Resources Risk Indicators
The analysis of Civitas Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Civitas Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting civitas stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.66 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.08 | |||
| Variance | 4.32 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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When determining whether Civitas Resources offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Civitas Resources' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Civitas Resources Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Civitas Resources Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Civitas Resources to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Civitas Stock please use our How to Invest in Civitas Resources guide.You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Oil & Gas Exploration & Production space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Civitas Resources. If investors know Civitas will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Civitas Resources listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.929 | Dividend Share 6.06 | Earnings Share 10.2 | Revenue Per Share 51.373 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.228 |
The market value of Civitas Resources is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Civitas that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Civitas Resources' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Civitas Resources' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Civitas Resources' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Civitas Resources' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Civitas Resources' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Civitas Resources is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Civitas Resources' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.