Chimerix Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CMRXDelisted Stock | USD 8.54 0.01 0.12% |
Chimerix Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Chimerix's share price is above 70 at this time suggesting that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Chimerix, making its price go up or down. Momentum 79
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Chimerix hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Chimerix from the perspective of Chimerix response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Chimerix on the next trading day is expected to be 9.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.69. Chimerix after-hype prediction price | USD 8.54 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as delisted stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Chimerix |
Chimerix Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Chimerix price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Chimerix using various technical indicators. When you analyze Chimerix charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Chimerix Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Chimerix on the next trading day is expected to be 9.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.69.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Chimerix Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Chimerix's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Chimerix Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Chimerix | Chimerix Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Chimerix stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Chimerix stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.9117 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.372 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0588 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.6927 |
Predictive Modules for Chimerix
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chimerix. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Chimerix After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Chimerix at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Chimerix or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Chimerix, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Chimerix Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Chimerix's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Chimerix's historical news coverage. Chimerix's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.54 and 8.54, respectively. We have considered Chimerix's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Chimerix is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Chimerix is based on 3 months time horizon.
Chimerix Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Chimerix is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Chimerix backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Delisted Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Chimerix, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
8.54 | 8.54 | 0.00 |
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Chimerix Hype Timeline
Chimerix is currently traded for 8.54. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Chimerix is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Chimerix is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.54. About 56.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.99. Chimerix had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in main economic indicators.Chimerix Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Chimerix's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Chimerix's future price movements. Getting to know how Chimerix's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Chimerix may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CDMO | Avid Bioservices | 0.01 | 8 per month | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1.93 | (0.57) | 13.69 | |
| ICVX | Icosavax | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ICPT | Intercept Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ASLN | Aslan Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| HARP | Harpoon Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ALBO | Albireo Pharma | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| IKNA | IKNA Old | (0.36) | 4 per month | 2.90 | 0.07 | 6.72 | (3.94) | 18.39 | |
| PSTX | Poseida Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| GRCL | Gracell Biotechnologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| VERV | Verve Therapeutics | 0.35 | 4 per month | 2.98 | 0.14 | 8.32 | (5.62) | 83.78 |
Chimerix Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Chimerix stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Chimerix could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Chimerix by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Chimerix Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Chimerix stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Chimerix shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Chimerix stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Chimerix entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Chimerix Risk Indicators
The analysis of Chimerix's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Chimerix's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting chimerix stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.5 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 9.13 | |||
| Variance | 83.36 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.22 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.51 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.21) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Chimerix
The number of cover stories for Chimerix depends on current market conditions and Chimerix's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Chimerix is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Chimerix's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Chimerix Short Properties
Chimerix's future price predictability will typically decrease when Chimerix's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Chimerix often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Chimerix's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Chimerix's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 89.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 31 M |
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in main economic indicators. You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..
Other Consideration for investing in Chimerix Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Chimerix check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Chimerix's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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