CROBEX10 Index Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| CRBEX10 Index | 2,005 18.94 0.95% |
CROBEX10 Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of CROBEX10 on the next trading day is expected to be 1,966 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.61, mean absolute percentage error of 238.88, and the sum of the absolute errors of 769.09.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CROBEX10 Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CROBEX10's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CROBEX10 Index Forecast Pattern
CROBEX10 Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CROBEX10's Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CROBEX10's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,966 and 1,967, respectively. We have considered CROBEX10's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CROBEX10 index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CROBEX10 index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.5865 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 12.6081 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0066 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 769.0926 |
Predictive Modules for CROBEX10
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CROBEX10. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the index market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the index market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CROBEX10's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for CROBEX10
For every potential investor in CROBEX10, whether a beginner or expert, CROBEX10's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CROBEX10 Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CROBEX10. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CROBEX10's price trends.CROBEX10 Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CROBEX10 index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CROBEX10 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CROBEX10 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CROBEX10 Technical and Predictive Analytics
The index market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CROBEX10's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CROBEX10's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CROBEX10 Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CROBEX10 index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CROBEX10 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CROBEX10 index market strength indicators, traders can identify CROBEX10 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0105 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.8981 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1996.39 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1999.18 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 21.09 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 17.87 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 18.94 |
CROBEX10 Risk Indicators
The analysis of CROBEX10's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CROBEX10's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting crobex10 index prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.3803 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.2349 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.54 | |||
| Variance | 0.2916 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.2826 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0552 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.41) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.