Citizens National Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CZNLDelisted Stock | USD 49.00 0.00 0.00% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Citizens National on the next trading day is expected to be 48.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.05. Citizens Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Citizens National's share price is below 20 suggesting that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Citizens National hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Citizens National from the perspective of Citizens National response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Citizens National on the next trading day is expected to be 48.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.05. Citizens National after-hype prediction price | USD 48.97 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Citizens |
Citizens National Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Citizens price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Citizens using various technical indicators. When you analyze Citizens charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Citizens National Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Citizens National on the next trading day is expected to be 48.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51, mean absolute percentage error of 0.52, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.05.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Citizens Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Citizens National's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Citizens National Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Citizens National | Citizens National Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Citizens National pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Citizens National pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.4532 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.509 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0112 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.0493 |
Predictive Modules for Citizens National
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Citizens National. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Citizens National After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Citizens National at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Citizens National or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Citizens National, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Citizens National Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Citizens National's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Citizens National's historical news coverage. Citizens National's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 47.79 and 50.15, respectively. We have considered Citizens National's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Citizens National is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Citizens National is based on 3 months time horizon.
Citizens National Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Citizens National is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Citizens National backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Citizens National, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 1.18 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 4 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
49.00 | 48.97 | 0.06 |
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Citizens National Hype Timeline
Citizens National is currently traded for 49.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Citizens is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 48.97. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.06%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.18%. The volatility of related hype on Citizens National is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 49.00. The company last dividend was issued on the 19th of December 2022. Citizens National had 2:1 split on the 20th of June 2007. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in employment.Citizens National Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Citizens National's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Citizens National's future price movements. Getting to know how Citizens National's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Citizens National may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| INFT | Infinity Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 0.00 | (0.64) | 10.54 | |
| BAOB | Baraboo Bancorporation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.04 | 0.11 | 2.45 | (1.78) | 11.56 | |
| WSSH | West Shore Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1.86 | (0.60) | 6.26 | |
| LUMB | Lumbee Guaranty Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11.37 | |
| MBKL | MBT Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.03 | 0.04 | 5.73 | (3.38) | 22.40 | |
| DENI | Denali Bancorporation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.67 | 0.01 | 6.15 | (6.46) | 13.79 | |
| NIDB | Northeast Indiana Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.96 | 0.01 | 1.94 | (1.83) | 7.18 | |
| HFBK | Harford Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.14 | 0.08 | 3.29 | (2.21) | 13.08 | |
| GVYB | Golden Valley Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1.90 | 0.00 | 9.99 | |
| CEFC | Commercial National Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.19 | 2.41 | (1.06) | 5.36 |
Citizens National Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Citizens National pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Citizens National could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Citizens National by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Citizens National Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Citizens National pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Citizens National shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Citizens National pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Citizens National entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Citizens National Risk Indicators
The analysis of Citizens National's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Citizens National's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting citizens pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4759 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.19 | |||
| Variance | 1.42 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Citizens National
The number of cover stories for Citizens National depends on current market conditions and Citizens National's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Citizens National is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Citizens National's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in employment. You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.
Other Consideration for investing in Citizens Pink Sheet
If you are still planning to invest in Citizens National check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Citizens National's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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