Duke Energy Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| D2MN Stock | EUR 104.00 0.62 0.59% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Duke Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 97.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.71 and the sum of the absolute errors of 106.02. Duke Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Duke Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Duke |
Duke Energy Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Duke Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 97.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.71, mean absolute percentage error of 4.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 106.02.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Duke Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Duke Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Duke Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
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Duke Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Duke Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Duke Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 96.67 and 99.21, respectively. We have considered Duke Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Duke Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Duke Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.4247 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.7099 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0162 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 106.0154 |
Predictive Modules for Duke Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Duke Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Duke Energy
For every potential investor in Duke, whether a beginner or expert, Duke Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Duke Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Duke. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Duke Energy's price trends.Duke Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Duke Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Duke Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Duke Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Duke Energy Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Duke Energy's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Duke Energy's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Duke Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Duke Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Duke Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Duke Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Duke Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.57 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.03) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 104.24 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 104.16 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.006 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.55) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.62) |
Duke Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Duke Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Duke Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting duke stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9326 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.26 | |||
| Variance | 1.58 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.76 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.7 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.91) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Duke Stock
When determining whether Duke Energy is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Duke Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Duke Energy Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Duke Energy Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Duke Energy to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Duke Stock please use our How to Invest in Duke Energy guide.You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.