Bny Mellon Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| DMF Stock | USD 7.28 0.05 0.69% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bny Mellon Municipalome on the next trading day is expected to be 7.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.00. Bny Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bny Mellon's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Bny |
Bny Mellon Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bny Mellon Municipalome on the next trading day is expected to be 7.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.00.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bny Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bny Mellon's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bny Mellon Stock Forecast Pattern
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Bny Mellon Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bny Mellon's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bny Mellon's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.65 and 7.88, respectively. We have considered Bny Mellon's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bny Mellon stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bny Mellon stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.0507 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -8.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0334 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0046 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.0043 |
Predictive Modules for Bny Mellon
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bny Mellon Municipalome. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Bny Mellon
For every potential investor in Bny, whether a beginner or expert, Bny Mellon's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bny Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bny. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bny Mellon's price trends.View Bny Mellon Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bny Mellon Municipalome Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bny Mellon's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bny Mellon's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Bny Mellon Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bny Mellon stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bny Mellon shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bny Mellon stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bny Mellon Municipalome entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 51.86 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.25 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 7.26 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 7.27 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.045 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.05 |
Bny Mellon Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bny Mellon's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bny Mellon's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bny stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4379 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6404 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.6079 | |||
| Variance | 0.3696 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.5257 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4101 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.46) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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When determining whether Bny Mellon Municipalome is a strong investment it is important to analyze Bny Mellon's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Bny Mellon's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Bny Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bny Mellon to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bny Mellon. If investors know Bny will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bny Mellon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.421 | Dividend Share 0.287 | Earnings Share 0.43 | Revenue Per Share 0.474 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.041 |
The market value of Bny Mellon Municipalome is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bny that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bny Mellon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bny Mellon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bny Mellon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bny Mellon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bny Mellon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bny Mellon is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bny Mellon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.