Exscientia Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

Triple exponential smoothing for Exscientia - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Exscientia prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Exscientia price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Exscientia ADR.

Exscientia Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Exscientia Ltd ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 4.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.76.

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Exscientia stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Exscientia stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Exscientia observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Exscientia Ltd ADR observations.

Predictive Modules for Exscientia

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Exscientia ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 1.43 4.85 8.27 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 0.88 4.30 7.72 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 4.29 5.20 6.12 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Exscientia. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Exscientia's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Exscientia's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Exscientia ADR.

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