Fks Multi Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

FISH Stock  IDR 10,900  50.00  0.46%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fks Multi Agro on the next trading day is expected to be 10,776 with a mean absolute deviation of 348.66 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21,268. Fks Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Fks Multi is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Fks Multi Agro value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Fks Multi Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fks Multi Agro on the next trading day is expected to be 10,776 with a mean absolute deviation of 348.66, mean absolute percentage error of 289,769, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21,268.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fks Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fks Multi's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Fks Multi Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Fks MultiFks Multi Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Fks Multi Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Fks Multi's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fks Multi's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10,772 and 10,779, respectively. We have considered Fks Multi's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
10,900
10,772
Downside
10,776
Expected Value
10,779
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fks Multi stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fks Multi stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria130.6873
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation348.6579
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0363
SAESum of the absolute errors21268.1306
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Fks Multi Agro. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Fks Multi. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Fks Multi

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fks Multi Agro. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10,89710,90010,903
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8,3908,39311,990
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
10,87010,91710,964
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Fks Multi

For every potential investor in Fks, whether a beginner or expert, Fks Multi's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fks Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fks. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fks Multi's price trends.

Fks Multi Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fks Multi stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fks Multi could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fks Multi by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Fks Multi Agro Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Fks Multi's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Fks Multi's current price.

Fks Multi Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fks Multi stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fks Multi shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fks Multi stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fks Multi Agro entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Fks Multi Risk Indicators

The analysis of Fks Multi's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fks Multi's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fks stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Fks Stock

Fks Multi financial ratios help investors to determine whether Fks Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Fks with respect to the benefits of owning Fks Multi security.