FIRST MUTUAL Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

FMP Stock   95.00  0.04  0.04%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of FIRST MUTUAL PROPERTIES on the next trading day is expected to be 94.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 388.91. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast FIRST MUTUAL's stock prices and determine the direction of FIRST MUTUAL PROPERTIES's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of FIRST MUTUAL's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in interest.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through FIRST MUTUAL price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

FIRST MUTUAL Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of FIRST MUTUAL PROPERTIES on the next trading day is expected to be 94.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.38, mean absolute percentage error of 58.82, and the sum of the absolute errors of 388.91.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FIRST Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FIRST MUTUAL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

FIRST MUTUAL Stock Forecast Pattern

FIRST MUTUAL Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting FIRST MUTUAL's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. FIRST MUTUAL's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 88.65 and 100.07, respectively. We have considered FIRST MUTUAL's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
95.00
94.36
Expected Value
100.07
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FIRST MUTUAL stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FIRST MUTUAL stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.1849
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation6.3756
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1081
SAESum of the absolute errors388.9132
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as FIRST MUTUAL PROPERTIES historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for FIRST MUTUAL

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FIRST MUTUAL PROPERTIES. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of FIRST MUTUAL's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.

Other Forecasting Options for FIRST MUTUAL

For every potential investor in FIRST, whether a beginner or expert, FIRST MUTUAL's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FIRST Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FIRST. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying FIRST MUTUAL's price trends.

FIRST MUTUAL Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with FIRST MUTUAL stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of FIRST MUTUAL could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing FIRST MUTUAL by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

FIRST MUTUAL PROPERTIES Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of FIRST MUTUAL's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of FIRST MUTUAL's current price.

FIRST MUTUAL Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how FIRST MUTUAL stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading FIRST MUTUAL shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying FIRST MUTUAL stock market strength indicators, traders can identify FIRST MUTUAL PROPERTIES entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

FIRST MUTUAL Risk Indicators

The analysis of FIRST MUTUAL's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in FIRST MUTUAL's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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