Fossil Group Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

FOSLLDelisted Stock  USD 17.01  0.00  0.00%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fossil Group 7 on the next trading day is expected to be 16.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.33. Fossil Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, the value of RSI of Fossil Group's share price is approaching 43. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Fossil Group, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 43

 Sell Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Fossil Group's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Fossil Group and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Fossil Group's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Fossil Group 7, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Fossil Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fossil Group 7 from the perspective of Fossil Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fossil Group 7 on the next trading day is expected to be 16.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.33.

Fossil Group after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 17.01  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as delisted stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in industry.

Fossil Group Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Fossil price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fossil using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fossil charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Fossil Group is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Fossil Group 7 value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Fossil Group Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 10th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fossil Group 7 on the next trading day is expected to be 16.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64, mean absolute percentage error of 0.68, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.33.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fossil Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fossil Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Fossil Group Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Fossil GroupFossil Group Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fossil Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fossil Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.7262
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6448
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0341
SAESum of the absolute errors39.3342
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Fossil Group 7. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Fossil Group. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Fossil Group

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fossil Group 7. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
14.0217.0120.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12.3615.3518.34
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
16.1917.6919.20
Details

Fossil Group Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fossil Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fossil Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fossil Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Fossil Group Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fossil Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fossil Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fossil Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fossil Group 7 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Fossil Group Risk Indicators

The analysis of Fossil Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fossil Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fossil stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!

The Portfolio Prophet is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.

Try AI Portfolio Prophet
Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in industry.
You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.

Other Consideration for investing in Fossil Stock

If you are still planning to invest in Fossil Group 7 check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Fossil Group's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
Portfolio Anywhere
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device
Portfolio File Import
Quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format
Equity Analysis
Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities
Portfolio Center
All portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios
Alpha Finder
Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk
Portfolio Suggestion
Get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios
AI Portfolio Prophet
Use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities
Headlines Timeline
Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity
Economic Indicators
Top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing