Great Elm Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| GECCZDelisted Stock | 25.12 0.04 0.16% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Great Elm Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 25.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.03. Great Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of Great Elm's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Great Elm hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Great Elm Capital from the perspective of Great Elm response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Great Elm Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 25.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.03. Great Elm after-hype prediction price | USD 25.12 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as delisted stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Great |
Great Elm Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Great price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Great using various technical indicators. When you analyze Great charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Great Elm Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Great Elm Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 25.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.03.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Great Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Great Elm's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Great Elm Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Great Elm | Great Elm Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Great Elm stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Great Elm stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.1259 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.066 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0026 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.0269 |
Predictive Modules for Great Elm
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Great Elm Capital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Great Elm's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Great Elm After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Great Elm at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Great Elm or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Great Elm, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Great Elm Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Great Elm's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Great Elm's historical news coverage. Great Elm's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25.12 and 25.12, respectively. We have considered Great Elm's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Great Elm is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Great Elm Capital is based on 3 months time horizon.
Great Elm Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Great Elm is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Great Elm backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Delisted Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Great Elm, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 14 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 14 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
25.12 | 25.12 | 0.00 |
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Great Elm Hype Timeline
Great Elm Capital is currently traded for 25.12. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Great is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Great Elm is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.12. The company last dividend was issued on the 31st of December 2025. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 14 days. Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in unemployment.Great Elm Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Great Elm's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Great Elm's future price movements. Getting to know how Great Elm's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Great Elm may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HMNF | HMN Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| PTHR | Pono Capital Three | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| TBCP | Thunder Bridge Capital | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| BHAC | BaringtonHilco Acquisition | 0.38 | 4 per month | 0.00 | 0.13 | 35.71 | 0.00 | 209.67 | |
| OPA | Magnum Opus Acquisition | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ABL | ABL Old | 0.09 | 7 per month | 2.75 | 0.14 | 6.69 | (5.04) | 28.30 | |
| CCAP | Crescent Capital BDC | 0.04 | 10 per month | 1.40 | 0.02 | 2.37 | (2.37) | 6.85 | |
| PTRS | Partners Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| BTM | Bitcoin Depot | 0.10 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 5.43 | (7.84) | 29.32 | |
| BMAC | Black Mountain Acquisition | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Great Elm Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Great Elm stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Great Elm could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Great Elm by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Great Elm Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Great Elm stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Great Elm shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Great Elm stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Great Elm Capital entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Great Elm Risk Indicators
The analysis of Great Elm's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Great Elm's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting great stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1686 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.1588 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.2295 | |||
| Variance | 0.0527 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0834 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0252 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.18) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Great Elm
The number of cover stories for Great Elm depends on current market conditions and Great Elm's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Great Elm is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Great Elm's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Great Elm Short Properties
Great Elm's future price predictability will typically decrease when Great Elm's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Great Elm Capital often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Great Elm's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Great Elm's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Dividend Yield | 0.0858 | |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 527 |
Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in unemployment. You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Other Consideration for investing in Great Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Great Elm Capital check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Great Elm's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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