Gilead Sciences Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GILD34 Stock | BRL 279.28 6.31 2.31% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Gilead Sciences on the next trading day is expected to be 280.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.63 and the sum of the absolute errors of 225.02. Gilead Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Gilead Sciences stock prices and determine the direction of Gilead Sciences's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Gilead Sciences' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Gilead |
Gilead Sciences Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Gilead Sciences on the next trading day is expected to be 280.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.63, mean absolute percentage error of 28.68, and the sum of the absolute errors of 225.02.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gilead Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gilead Sciences' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Gilead Sciences Stock Forecast Pattern
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Gilead Sciences Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Gilead Sciences' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gilead Sciences' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 278.51 and 281.60, respectively. We have considered Gilead Sciences' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gilead Sciences stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gilead Sciences stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.3047 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.6294 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0142 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 225.0234 |
Predictive Modules for Gilead Sciences
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gilead Sciences. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Gilead Sciences
For every potential investor in Gilead, whether a beginner or expert, Gilead Sciences' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gilead Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gilead. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gilead Sciences' price trends.Gilead Sciences Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gilead Sciences stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gilead Sciences could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gilead Sciences by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Gilead Sciences Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Gilead Sciences' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Gilead Sciences' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Gilead Sciences Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gilead Sciences stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gilead Sciences shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gilead Sciences stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Gilead Sciences entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Gilead Sciences Risk Indicators
The analysis of Gilead Sciences' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gilead Sciences' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gilead stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9371 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9236 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.51 | |||
| Variance | 2.27 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.22 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.853 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.53) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Gilead Stock
When determining whether Gilead Sciences is a strong investment it is important to analyze Gilead Sciences' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Gilead Sciences' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Gilead Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gilead Sciences to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Gilead Stock refer to our How to Trade Gilead Stock guide.You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.