GLCN Etf Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| GLCN Etf | USD 23.07 0.09 0.39% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of GLCN on the next trading day is expected to be 23.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.80. GLCN Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
GLCN |
GLCN Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of GLCN on the next trading day is expected to be 23.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.80.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GLCN Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GLCN's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
GLCN Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest GLCN | GLCN Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GLCN etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GLCN etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.9795 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.259 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.011 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.7977 |
Predictive Modules for GLCN
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GLCN. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of GLCN's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
GLCN Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GLCN etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GLCN could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GLCN by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
GLCN Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GLCN etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GLCN shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GLCN etf market strength indicators, traders can identify GLCN entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
GLCN Risk Indicators
The analysis of GLCN's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GLCN's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting glcn etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.02 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Variance | 1.65 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with GLCN
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if GLCN position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in GLCN will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against GLCN Etf
| 0.81 | DSJA | DSJA | PairCorr |
| 0.79 | SIXD | AIM ETF Products | PairCorr |
| 0.78 | TSJA | TSJA | PairCorr |
| 0.76 | CQQQ | Invesco China Technology | PairCorr |
| 0.76 | EOS | Eaton Vance Enhanced | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to GLCN could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace GLCN when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back GLCN - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling GLCN to buy it.
The correlation of GLCN is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as GLCN moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if GLCN moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for GLCN can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any etf could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in main economic indicators. You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
The market value of GLCN is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of GLCN that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of GLCN's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is GLCN's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because GLCN's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect GLCN's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between GLCN's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if GLCN is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, GLCN's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.