The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Arian Resources Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 0.0001 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0. Arian Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Arian Resources' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Arian
A naive forecasting model for Arian Resources is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Arian Resources Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Arian Resources Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Arian Resources Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 0.0001 with a mean absolute deviation of 0, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arian Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arian Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arian Resources pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arian Resources pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AIC
Akaike Information Criteria
30.385
Bias
Arithmetic mean of the errors
None
MAD
Mean absolute deviation
0.0
MAPE
Mean absolute percentage error
0.0
SAE
Sum of the absolute errors
0.0
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Arian Resources Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Arian Resources. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.
Predictive Modules for Arian Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arian Resources Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Arian Resources pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Arian Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arian Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arian Resources pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arian Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arian Resources pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Arian Resources Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Other Information on Investing in Arian Pink Sheet
Arian Resources financial ratios help investors to determine whether Arian Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Arian with respect to the benefits of owning Arian Resources security.