Gladstone Commercial Preferred Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

GOODO Preferred Stock  USD 21.91  0.15  0.69%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Gladstone Commercial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 21.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.50. Gladstone Preferred Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Gladstone Commercial polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Gladstone Commercial Corp as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Gladstone Commercial Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Gladstone Commercial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 21.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.50.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gladstone Preferred Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gladstone Commercial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Gladstone Commercial Preferred Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Gladstone CommercialGladstone Commercial Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Gladstone Commercial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Gladstone Commercial's Preferred Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gladstone Commercial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.08 and 22.25, respectively. We have considered Gladstone Commercial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
21.91
21.67
Expected Value
22.25
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gladstone Commercial preferred stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gladstone Commercial preferred stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.3433
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1209
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0056
SAESum of the absolute errors7.4984
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Gladstone Commercial historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Gladstone Commercial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gladstone Commercial Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gladstone Commercial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
21.3321.9122.49
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
21.4722.0522.63
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
21.0921.7722.45
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Gladstone Commercial

For every potential investor in Gladstone, whether a beginner or expert, Gladstone Commercial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gladstone Preferred Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gladstone. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gladstone Commercial's price trends.

Gladstone Commercial Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gladstone Commercial preferred stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gladstone Commercial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gladstone Commercial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Gladstone Commercial Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The preferred stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Gladstone Commercial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Gladstone Commercial's current price.

Gladstone Commercial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gladstone Commercial preferred stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gladstone Commercial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gladstone Commercial preferred stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Gladstone Commercial Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Gladstone Commercial Risk Indicators

The analysis of Gladstone Commercial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gladstone Commercial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gladstone preferred stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Gladstone Commercial

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Gladstone Commercial position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Gladstone Commercial will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Gladstone Preferred Stock

  0.76CTO-PA CTO Realty GrowthPairCorr
  0.8MDV-PA Modiv IncPairCorr
  0.8NXDT-PA NexPoint Diversified RealPairCorr

Moving against Gladstone Preferred Stock

  0.7SQFTP Presidio Property TrustPairCorr
  0.41O Realty IncomePairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Gladstone Commercial could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Gladstone Commercial when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Gladstone Commercial - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Gladstone Commercial Corp to buy it.
The correlation of Gladstone Commercial is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Gladstone Commercial moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Gladstone Commercial Corp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Gladstone Commercial can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Gladstone Preferred Stock

Gladstone Commercial financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gladstone Preferred Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gladstone with respect to the benefits of owning Gladstone Commercial security.