GILAT SATELLITE Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

GSA Stock  EUR 15.20  0.40  2.70%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of GILAT SATELLITE on the next trading day is expected to be 15.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.45. GILAT Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of GILAT SATELLITE's stock price is slightly above 64. This usually indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling GILAT, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 64

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of GILAT SATELLITE's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with GILAT SATELLITE, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using GILAT SATELLITE hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of GILAT SATELLITE from the perspective of GILAT SATELLITE response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of GILAT SATELLITE on the next trading day is expected to be 15.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.45.

GILAT SATELLITE after-hype prediction price

    
  EUR 15.2  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GILAT SATELLITE to cross-verify your projections.

GILAT SATELLITE Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine GILAT price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for GILAT using various technical indicators. When you analyze GILAT charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for GILAT SATELLITE is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of GILAT SATELLITE value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

GILAT SATELLITE Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of GILAT SATELLITE on the next trading day is expected to be 15.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47, mean absolute percentage error of 0.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.45.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GILAT Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GILAT SATELLITE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

GILAT SATELLITE Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest GILAT SATELLITEGILAT SATELLITE Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

GILAT SATELLITE Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting GILAT SATELLITE's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GILAT SATELLITE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.94 and 20.04, respectively. We have considered GILAT SATELLITE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
15.20
15.99
Expected Value
20.04
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GILAT SATELLITE stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GILAT SATELLITE stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.9169
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4664
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0414
SAESum of the absolute errors28.4505
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of GILAT SATELLITE. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict GILAT SATELLITE. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for GILAT SATELLITE

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GILAT SATELLITE. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.1515.2019.25
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
7.8611.9115.96
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
8.3912.6716.95
Details

GILAT SATELLITE After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of GILAT SATELLITE at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in GILAT SATELLITE or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of GILAT SATELLITE, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

GILAT SATELLITE Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting GILAT SATELLITE's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on GILAT SATELLITE's historical news coverage. GILAT SATELLITE's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.15 and 19.25, respectively. We have considered GILAT SATELLITE's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
15.20
15.20
After-hype Price
19.25
Upside
GILAT SATELLITE is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of GILAT SATELLITE is based on 3 months time horizon.

GILAT SATELLITE Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as GILAT SATELLITE is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading GILAT SATELLITE backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with GILAT SATELLITE, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.37 
4.05
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
15.20
15.20
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

GILAT SATELLITE Hype Timeline

GILAT SATELLITE is currently traded for 15.20on Munich Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. GILAT is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.37%. %. The volatility of related hype on GILAT SATELLITE is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.20. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.24. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. GILAT SATELLITE last dividend was issued on the 27th of March 1970. The entity had 1:20 split on the 16th of April 2003. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GILAT SATELLITE to cross-verify your projections.

GILAT SATELLITE Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to GILAT SATELLITE's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict GILAT SATELLITE's future price movements. Getting to know how GILAT SATELLITE's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how GILAT SATELLITE may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for GILAT SATELLITE

For every potential investor in GILAT, whether a beginner or expert, GILAT SATELLITE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GILAT Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GILAT. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GILAT SATELLITE's price trends.

GILAT SATELLITE Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GILAT SATELLITE stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GILAT SATELLITE could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GILAT SATELLITE by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

GILAT SATELLITE Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GILAT SATELLITE stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GILAT SATELLITE shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GILAT SATELLITE stock market strength indicators, traders can identify GILAT SATELLITE entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

GILAT SATELLITE Risk Indicators

The analysis of GILAT SATELLITE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GILAT SATELLITE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gilat stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for GILAT SATELLITE

The number of cover stories for GILAT SATELLITE depends on current market conditions and GILAT SATELLITE's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that GILAT SATELLITE is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about GILAT SATELLITE's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Additional Tools for GILAT Stock Analysis

When running GILAT SATELLITE's price analysis, check to measure GILAT SATELLITE's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy GILAT SATELLITE is operating at the current time. Most of GILAT SATELLITE's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of GILAT SATELLITE's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move GILAT SATELLITE's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of GILAT SATELLITE to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.