Diageo Plc Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

GUIA Stock  EUR 117.00  2.00  1.74%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Diageo plc on the next trading day is expected to be 116.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.60 and the sum of the absolute errors of 97.44. Diageo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Diageo Plc's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Diageo Plc is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Diageo plc value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Diageo Plc Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Diageo plc on the next trading day is expected to be 116.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.60, mean absolute percentage error of 4.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 97.44.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Diageo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Diageo Plc's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Diageo Plc Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Diageo PlcDiageo Plc Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Diageo Plc Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Diageo Plc's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Diageo Plc's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 114.89 and 118.47, respectively. We have considered Diageo Plc's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
117.00
114.89
Downside
116.68
Expected Value
118.47
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Diageo Plc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Diageo Plc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.5312
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.5974
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0134
SAESum of the absolute errors97.4391
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Diageo plc. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Diageo Plc. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Diageo Plc

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Diageo plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
115.21117.00118.79
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
115.96117.75119.54
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
106.29115.14123.99
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Diageo Plc. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Diageo Plc's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Diageo Plc's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Diageo plc.

Other Forecasting Options for Diageo Plc

For every potential investor in Diageo, whether a beginner or expert, Diageo Plc's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Diageo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Diageo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Diageo Plc's price trends.

Diageo Plc Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Diageo Plc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Diageo Plc could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Diageo Plc by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Diageo plc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Diageo Plc's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Diageo Plc's current price.

Diageo Plc Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Diageo Plc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Diageo Plc shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Diageo Plc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Diageo plc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Diageo Plc Risk Indicators

The analysis of Diageo Plc's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Diageo Plc's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting diageo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Other Information on Investing in Diageo Stock

Diageo Plc financial ratios help investors to determine whether Diageo Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Diageo with respect to the benefits of owning Diageo Plc security.