Harbor International Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

HIIGX Fund  USD 17.39  0.00  0.00%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Harbor International Growth on the next trading day is expected to be 17.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.98. Harbor Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Harbor International is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Harbor International Growth value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Harbor International Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Harbor International Growth on the next trading day is expected to be 17.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.98.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Harbor Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Harbor International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Harbor International Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Harbor InternationalHarbor International Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Harbor International mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Harbor International mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.5369
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1309
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0077
SAESum of the absolute errors7.9833
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Harbor International Growth. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Harbor International. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Harbor International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Harbor International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
16.5117.3918.27
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
15.0015.8819.13
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
17.3917.3917.39
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Harbor International. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Harbor International's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Harbor International's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Harbor International.

Harbor International Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Harbor International mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Harbor International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Harbor International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Harbor International Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Harbor International mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Harbor International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Harbor International mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Harbor International Growth entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Harbor International Risk Indicators

The analysis of Harbor International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Harbor International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting harbor mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Harbor Mutual Fund

Harbor International financial ratios help investors to determine whether Harbor Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Harbor with respect to the benefits of owning Harbor International security.
Insider Screener
Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance
Portfolio File Import
Quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format
Headlines Timeline
Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity
Idea Analyzer
Analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas