Itau Fundo Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| IFRI11 Fund | 94.74 0.38 0.40% |
Itau |
Itau Fundo Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Itau Fundo De on the next trading day is expected to be 94.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.63, mean absolute percentage error of 0.62, and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.95.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Itau Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Itau Fundo's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Itau Fundo Fund Forecast Pattern
Itau Fundo Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Itau Fundo's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Itau Fundo's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 93.98 and 95.50, respectively. We have considered Itau Fundo's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Itau Fundo fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Itau Fundo fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.7924 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1168 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6325 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0063 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 37.95 |
Predictive Modules for Itau Fundo
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Itau Fundo De. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Itau Fundo
For every potential investor in Itau, whether a beginner or expert, Itau Fundo's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Itau Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Itau. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Itau Fundo's price trends.Itau Fundo Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Itau Fundo fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Itau Fundo could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Itau Fundo by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Itau Fundo De Technical and Predictive Analytics
The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Itau Fundo's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Itau Fundo's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Itau Fundo Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Itau Fundo fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Itau Fundo shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Itau Fundo fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Itau Fundo De entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Itau Fundo Risk Indicators
The analysis of Itau Fundo's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Itau Fundo's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting itau fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5999 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7567 | |||
| Variance | 0.5726 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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